Green Bay put up 404 yards and a 27-18 win over Washington on Thursday night, cashing for anyone who trusted a modest 3-point spread and a 48.5 total. For daily players, it was a slate that rewarded discipline: prioritize touchdown equity, respect snap volume, and don’t overthink kicker and defense correlation in a tight matchup.
The conversation started with Jayden Daniels. He was the chalk for a reason. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year blends accuracy with breakaway speed, and that dual threat is gold on one-game slates. But this game also reinforced something simple: when a team controls the trenches and tempo, the running back and defense combo can carry lineups—especially when that back is Josh Jacobs on a nine-game touchdown streak.
How the matchup unfolded
Green Bay dictated pace. Jordan Love handled the offense with poise, and the Packers stayed on schedule on early downs. That let them lean into their identity: a power run game with Jacobs and a heavier dose of two-tight end sets than we saw last year.
Jacobs looked like the same hammer he was in 2024—1,329 rushing yards and 15 scores on 301 carries, a Pro Bowl season that set up this year’s start. He kept his touchdown heater alive in Week 1 against Detroit and entered this game with scores in nine straight, a Packers record. Inside the 10, the ball keeps finding him. That’s not an accident; it’s design.
The tight ends mattered. Tucker Kraft led the team with seven touchdown catches last year and drew 70 targets. Week 1 usage hinted at a shift: Kraft played all 48 offensive snaps, while Luke Musgrave saw 17 and John FitzPatrick 15. We saw more 12 personnel again here, and with it, cleaner play-action looks and better protection. That matters for routes and red-zone leverage.
On the other side, Washington’s blueprint still runs through Daniels. He posted 3,568 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine picks last season, plus 891 rushing yards and six rushing scores. He opened 2025 by going 19-of-30 for 233 yards and a touchdown with a 98.3 passer rating against the Giants. Even when the Commanders are chasing, his legs stabilize fantasy output. That’s why he drew heavy multiplier ownership despite Green Bay’s edge.
Green Bay’s defense looked the part again. With the high-profile addition of Micah Parsons, the unit has leaned into speed and pressure, and early returns are clear: it’s stingier, quicker to the ball, and more disruptive on passing downs. That set the tone for a game script that favored Packers stacks, kicker exposure, and lineups built around short fields.
DFS slate breakdown: what paid off and what to watch
This was a single-game clinic in leveraging role, correlation, and game script. It rewarded users who didn’t get cute at captain and who leaned into the right secondary pieces.
- Captain/multiplier: Jayden Daniels was the popular multiplier—and that was sound. His rushing floor gives him outs even when trailing. The sharper pivot was Jordan Love in builds banking on multiple Packers touchdowns without a single alpha pass-catcher owning the scoring.
- Running backs: Josh Jacobs was the premier piece. He owns goal-line work, he closes out wins, and he’s durable. In a spread at a field-goal number, that profile deserves priority. Pairing him with Packers D/ST amplified the leverage without needing an onslaught.
- Pass-catchers: Usage pointed to Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft. Doubs led routes in Week 1 and fits Love’s intermediate timing game. Kraft’s red-zone role and every-down workload made him a value anchor, especially on DraftKings with full PPR. Musgrave and FitzPatrick were thin darts tied to two-TE formations, not bankable volume.
- Quarterbacks in builds: For Showdown/Single-Game, forcing both QBs is often right in spreads under a touchdown. It captures total play volume, rushing spikes, and fourth-quarter garbage-time equity. Here, that approach kept lineups live regardless of which side finished drives.
- Kickers: Brandon McManus was a clean play. He went 22-of-23 last year (96%) and hit all three from 50-plus after replacing Brayden Narveson midseason. In neutral-weather totals near 49 with a defense that can stall drives, kickers are not luxury—they’re leverage against overstacked WR builds.
- Defense: Green Bay’s D fit the script. Pressure creates short fields and field goals; sacks are sticky when protection breaks down. In contests where many users double-stack a mobile QB with pass-catchers, a bring-back defense can quietly flip the slate.
How did roster construction shake out? The field tilted toward Daniels at multiplier with 3-3 and 4-2 builds. Balanced constructions that paired a Packers core (Jacobs + D/ST + one of Doubs/Kraft) with Daniels and a value Commander held steady across formats. The more aggressive approach—5-1 Packers—also made sense if you believed Washington would be chasing late.
Salary flexibility mattered. Paying up for Jacobs while avoiding expensive, touchdown-or-bust pass-catchers created cleaner paths. Kraft and kickers helped unlock that, and they correlated with a slower second half as Green Bay squeezed the clock.
Stacking notes: with Washington, narrow stacks were safer. Daniels spreads it, and his biggest fantasy swing still comes from rushing. Single bring-backs like a value WR or the kicker fit better than guessing the right double-stack. For Green Bay, mini-stacks around Jacobs plus one pass-catcher worked because touchdowns funnel to the back and tight ends near the stripe.
Field tendencies were predictable. Many chased Washington receivers for comeback volume, but the Packers’ speed on defense and improved pressure rate trimmed the explosive plays that would have justified double-stacking. Meanwhile, Doubs’ route leadership and Kraft’s end-zone usage were cleaner bets than banking on deep shots.
Contest selection helped. In cash and small-field single entry, locking both QBs and Jacobs reduced risk. In large-field GPPs, flipping the multiplier to Love or anchoring with Packers D and McManus created leverage without needing an outlier box score.
Late-swap was modest but not irrelevant. If you trailed early and held a chalky Daniels multiplier, the sharper move was a 5-1 Packers pivot in your remaining spots, betting on more Jacobs volume, an extra field goal from McManus, and a garbage-time Daniels floor without ceiling.
Big-picture lessons going forward:
- Respect snap data. Kraft’s every-down role was a tell from Week 1, and it carried over.
- Quarterback rushing is a slate stabilizer. Daniels’ legs justify multiplier usage even as an underdog.
- Touchdown equity beats target hope. Jacobs’ streak and role at the goal line are more predictable than chasing WR variance on a spread-out offense.
- Kickers and defense are not afterthoughts on one-game slates with tight spreads and mid-to-high totals—they’re correlation tools.
If you play the next Washington or Green Bay island game, keep these edges in your pocket. Washington’s offensive floor rises and falls with Daniels’ rushing share. Green Bay’s ceiling rises when they can lean on Jacobs and keep two tight ends on the field. And when the market crowds the obvious stars, look for the quiet leverage: every-down tight ends, dependable kickers, and defenses that turn pressure into short fields.
In short, this was a reminder that NFL DFS on island slates still rewards the basics: follow the snaps, chase the touchdowns, and let the spread guide your story.